Interest rates and refinancing: what the Bank of Canada data says
The Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.50% (from 2026-10-29); lenders' prime is 4.70%. The average rate on new uninsured 5-year-plus fixed mortgages was 4.58% (2026-08), and the 5-year posted rate 6.19% (week of 2026-10-28). For a refinance, the posted rate matters for penalties and the contract rate + 2 (here 6.58%) for the stress test.
The rates that matter
| Series | Rate | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate (target overnight) | 2.50% | 2026-10-29 |
| 5-year conventional posted rate | 6.19% | 2026-10-28 |
| New uninsured fixed, 5 years and over (average paid) | 4.58% | 2026-08 |
| New uninsured variable (average paid) | 3.90% | 2026-08 |
The Bank of Canada raised the policy rate from 2.25% to 2.50% on October 29, 2026; lenders moved prime to 4.70% that day. Weekly and monthly series update on their own schedules.
Since 2019
Show the numbers
| 5-year posted | New uninsured 5yr+ (paid) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-01 | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| 2019-02 | 5.3% | 3.7% |
| 2019-03 | 5.3% | 3.6% |
| 2019-04 | 5.3% | 3.4% |
| 2019-05 | 5.3% | 3.3% |
| 2019-06 | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| 2019-07 | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| 2019-08 | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 2019-09 | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 2019-10 | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 2019-11 | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 2019-12 | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 2020-01 | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| 2020-02 | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| 2020-03 | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| 2020-04 | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| 2020-05 | 4.9% | 2.7% |
| 2020-06 | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| 2020-07 | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| 2020-08 | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| 2020-09 | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| 2020-10 | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 2020-11 | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 2020-12 | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 2021-01 | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 2021-02 | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| 2021-03 | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 2021-04 | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 2021-05 | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| 2021-06 | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| 2021-07 | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| 2021-08 | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| 2021-09 | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| 2021-10 | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| 2021-11 | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| 2021-12 | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| 2022-01 | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| 2022-02 | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| 2022-03 | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| 2022-04 | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| 2022-05 | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| 2022-06 | 6.0% | 3.7% |
| 2022-07 | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| 2022-08 | 6.1% | 4.4% |
| 2022-09 | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| 2022-10 | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| 2022-11 | 6.5% | 5.2% |
| 2022-12 | 6.5% | 5.2% |
| 2023-01 | 6.5% | 5.2% |
| 2023-02 | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| 2023-03 | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| 2023-04 | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| 2023-05 | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| 2023-06 | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| 2023-07 | 6.5% | 5.3% |
| 2023-08 | 6.8% | 5.5% |
| 2023-09 | 6.8% | 5.7% |
| 2023-10 | 7.0% | 5.8% |
| 2023-11 | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| 2023-12 | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| 2024-01 | 6.9% | 5.7% |
| 2024-02 | 6.8% | 5.6% |
| 2024-03 | 6.8% | 5.5% |
| 2024-04 | 6.8% | 5.3% |
| 2024-05 | 6.8% | 5.3% |
| 2024-06 | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| 2024-07 | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| 2024-08 | 6.6% | 5.1% |
| 2024-09 | 6.5% | 4.9% |
| 2024-10 | 6.5% | 4.8% |
| 2024-11 | 6.5% | 4.7% |
| 2024-12 | 6.5% | 4.6% |
| 2025-01 | 6.5% | 4.6% |
| 2025-02 | 6.5% | 4.6% |
| 2025-03 | 6.5% | 4.5% |
| 2025-04 | 6.5% | 4.3% |
| 2025-05 | 6.1% | 4.2% |
| 2025-06 | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| 2025-07 | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| 2025-08 | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| 2025-09 | 6.1% | 4.4% |
| 2025-10 | 6.1% | 4.4% |
| 2025-11 | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| 2025-12 | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| 2026-01 | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| 2026-02 | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| 2026-03 | 6.1% | 4.2% |
| 2026-04 | 6.1% | 4.2% |
| 2026-05 | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| 2026-06 | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| 2026-07 | 6.1% | 4.5% |
| 2026-08 | 6.1% | 4.6% |
What rates do to a refinance
Higher rates raise the qualifying rate and shrink what your income supports; lower rates raise IRD penalties if you're locked in above market. Run both in the equity calculator.
Frequently asked questions
Is now a good time to refinance?
It depends less on the rate than on your penalty, your term left and what the money is for. A refinance at renewal avoids the penalty; a HELOC avoids breaking the mortgage mid-term.
Primary sources
- Bank of Canada — Target for the overnight rate (series V39079): 2.50% from October 29, 2026 (effective October 29, 2026). Checked .
- OSFI — Minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages (effective January 29, 2026). Checked .
- Financial Consumer Agency of Canada — Reduce mortgage prepayment penalties (effective October 15, 2025). Checked .